Watch this Ad. You have lessons to learn.

Hi

If you look around, you will always get opportunities. I am sure you must  have seen this MRF tyre ad,starring Sachin Tendular.
If you have not seen that, do watch it now, before you read the mail, any further.
He says ” Dedication, Determination and Discipline can take you higher and closer to your ambition. But it is the precise little adjustments, which can take you higher.
How do little things matter.
I will enclose a nice article written by an IIT alumini, Nemi Jain on High speed rail. The document is enclosed for your reference and reading.
He talks about, how a distance of 1450 Km between Kolkatta  and Delhi has 200 places where the tracks curve, station halts etc, reduce the speed and hence it takes time to accelerate to top speed. This amounts to once every 7 kms on the route. This is a hurdle in reducing the travelling time. One of the options to reduce the travelling time is increase the power of the locomotive which will take more years to make.and cost is also high.
Instead, by introducing additional  loco, the cost would be much lower at 85 cr than the previous method of 180 cr.
Apart from saving cost, it can be implemented in 4 to 5 months
It can reduce travelling time by 2 hours.
This was implemented on a trial basis between Mumbai and Delhi and it did save 2 hours.
Now go back to the ad.
Let us assume, that having listened to various people, reading lot of information related to investment, you have the following qualities for making a great investor
Dedication,
Determination and and
Discipline.
When you have these qualities,your investment journey, can have the 200 curves like the High speed rail, journey. The ups and downs of the market for example. These can reduce the speed of growth of your investments.
More importantly, it may irritate you and test your patience.
What are the simple adjustments you can make.
1. When you are in  long haul of a long term goal, review your time horizon. If it is taking longer than you anticipated, you can start additional SIP, which can reduce the target time.
2. An improvised version of SIP, called TIP is available, This means, you can increase or reduce the SIP amount depending upon the market conditions, for a fixed Goal. Both time and amount.
3. You can also have multiple goals, instead of one, which can primarily take care of your short term needs. An investment goal for a holiday  is different from an investment goal of child’s education or retirement.
4. It is important to note that doing the same thing, same way, can get you same results. To get different, improved results, think of doing things differently in a positive manner.
5. Continuous improvement of your processes and hence results needs to be monitored. What is not not measured cannot be monitored .
What is not monitored cannot be improved.
Not only having sound technique is important, doing precise adjustments can take you a long way.
That is why Sachin, says, he trusts the experts.
Do you?
Do get in touch.
Enjoy reading the article. on high speed rail.
Attachments area
Preview YouTube video MRF Tyres and Service – #TrustTheExpert ft. Sachin Tendulkar

MRF Tyres and Service – #TrustTheExpert ft. Sachin Tendulkar
Thanks
varadharajan VS
ckar.vsv@gmail.com
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Have Faith: Be it in religion or investing

Hi

Most of the religious beliefs are because of the immense faith the person following the religion has. He or she may not be practising the rituals, but the faith generally is very strong. It is very much needs to be strong too.

Let us understand this with a small story.

A Dip in Ganges rids you of Sins and spiritual impurities

There is general belief that if you have a Dip in the river Ganges, which is supposed to be a holy river, flowing from North to East of India, your sins and spiritual impression be cleaned and you will be pure human being and that you will reach heaven, after you die.

One day, in their abode, Goddess Parvathi asked Lord Shiva. ” if everyone were to dip in Ganges and have themselves purified, they all will reach heaven. I doubt, if we have enough space to accommodate all of them. It will be mad rush and a stampede here”.

Lord Shiva smiled and said ” Don’t you worry. It will not happen. I will explain you, why it will not happen. Tomorrow, both of is will go and have dip in the Ganges and I will pretend that I am drowning and you need call out for help. But you must put a condition, to the person who wants to help me from drowning”

As planned, they dipped in Ganges and the old man slipped  the lady shouted for help. Many turned their attention to them and were to jump to save the old man. But the lady said, only a person, who is pure and rid of all sins can save my husband. One hearing this ever one stepped back and there was no one to help her and the old man. Everyone thought they were  not pure with lot of impurities.

At this point, a young saw the old man drowning, jumped into the rivers and saved the old man. When he came back to the banks, others asked him, if he was pure and how he could do this.

The young man said,” I am definitely not pure but I believe that river Ganges purifies  sins when we dip.. The moment I jumped in Ganges, I was purified and hence qualified to rescue the Old man”.

Lord Shiva told Goddess Parvathi, “though every one knew that they get purified, very few have faith, and believe in that. And those are the ones who succeed. Therefore don’t worry. We will not have too much crowd at the heaven.”

There you see, it was simple but was difficult for many to follow.

Similarly every one can get rich. Making money is simple. You need to have faith in the advisor, the economy and the leadership of the country. But then, as in the previous example, many just don’t get to make it rich and wealthy.

Give money the time to compound and work for you

It is the time in the market that matters and not the timing.

You invest 500 a month and you could be a millionaire in 20 years.

But do you believe this?

Do you trust your advisor when he gives you options

Do you have faith that you can also be rich and wealthy.

It is lack of faith, bystander approach, prevents one from acquiring wealth.

With Faith you can also reach heaven. Jump in the Ganges. Start investing today

I can teach you how to jump but not drown.

 

VS Varadharajan

ckar.vsv@gmail.com

 

2007 BC – 2017 AD, Markets Before Crash, After Demonetization

Hi

Wish you and your families a very happy Diwali.
The period mentioned above covers one Decade, 11 Diwalis and a Delightful journey, of course with Disturbances. Therefore the exercise was to analyse, 2007 Markets Before Crash and in 2017, After Demonetization.
In the last decade from 2007 to 2017, this is the 11th Diwali starting with 9th Nov 2007 till 19th October 2017. The first Diwali was before the crash of the global market due to Lehman crisis and we have  almost completed 10 years. This year 2017 Diwali also comes after historic actions of Demonetization and GST roll out.
Major Changes &  Happenings in the last decade has been
1. USA has seen three presidents from Bush to Obama and Trump
2. Euro crisis though has mellowed down has not been resolved fully. PIGS ( Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain crisis)
3. Britain has exited the Euro group and the Brexit happened 18 months back.
4. China has seen the rise of Xi Jinping as president and succeeding Hu JIntao and by the time you get this mail, he would have an extended term
5. NDA comes to power disloging UPA and Modi becomes the prime minister.
6. Demonetization announced last year  November and GST rolled out this July, said to be structural but currently disruptive.
7. Global terrorism at peak with IS and Jihad striking at will all over the globe and Europe being the new target.
8. North Korea making noises on and off, disrupting stability in the markets.
9. World markets crashed in 2008 on Lehman or sub prime crisis and all ran for shelter.
10. Globally Quantitative easing or QE, simply put, supply of easy money was made available.
11. When FED announced buy back of these QE, emerging markets crashed in July 13, Indian Rupee for hunting for cover, inflation shot up, Interest rates went up.
12. From YV Reddy to Subba Rao managed the ship, which was was reined well by Raghuram Rajan before Handing over to Urjit Patel.
In spite of all this, where are the markets now?
A. Nifty has gone up from 5698 to 10210 — an increase of  79%
B The S& P index in the US rose from 1725 an increase of  48%
C Gold crosses 30k for the second time in 2017, after falling in 2015
D Crude after hitting a peak of 140 and breaching is now stable  around 52
This has been a good performance. BC VS AD
Insights
Having seen the nifty giving a stupendous return, of close to 80%, any investor should be happy if he has invested in the Nifty.
Instead of investing in Nifty if you had invested in mutual funds, your money would have been managed better.
I have taken Large caps, Diversified or Multi caps, Mid caps and some sectoral funds. I have considered most of the funds, which have completed 10 year period.
As said earlier, the period, is chosen to cover a crash and then recovery.
You will notice that the investments in the Large cap funds, would have grown 2.24 times. This in a 10 year period works out a return of 8,5% CAGR
You will notice that the investments in the diversified funds, would have grown slightly better to 2,75 times. This for the same period works out to 10.5% CAGR
You will notice that if you had invested in mid caps, your funds would have grown approximately 4.8 times, leaving the out-liers in DSP micro cap and Principal emerging equities, This works out an average CAGR of 17
Also investing in a banking fund, like the Reliance banking would have given, 13%.
You will also see a surprise in Pharma fund, inspite of the recent problems the sector is facing, has grown 5.3 times at 18% CAG
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There are stocks like TTK prestige has given 50 times return, TVS Motors 20 times Bajaj Finance 50 times, it is very difficult to choose and hold these stocks.
Even if you did, you would also carry stocks which are not doing well and this can bring down your overall portfolio return.
Conclusion:
As an investor What should you do?
First do an asset allocation, of equity, debt and gold.
In equity, to maximise return, with lesser risk, invest through mutual funds.
You can depending upon your profile, allocate into large cap, multi cap, and Midcap stock and also allocate some money in to sectors like, banking, may be pharma or FMCG, which are so called defensive but ever growing.
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Your one lakh invested will be 3.6 lacs in 10 years, in spite of a huge crash, the markets had.
Mutual funds, give a platform to maximise your return, provided you do a good allocation.
I will be happy to help you out,  Do contact me for any clarifications, help etc.
Please note all data points are as on Diwali of respective years.
Varadharajan VS
ckar.vsv@gmail.com

Pharma MAGIC: The Ills and Pills

Hi

Everyone wants to live long. To live long, apart from doing, yoga, exercises etc, one of the things we need is medicine. Though, Ayurveda, Homeopathy offer medicines in their own form, It is the allopathy or the medicines, that we have in consultation with our doctors, to get rid of their ills, which has bulk of its share.That is where the pharma companies, come into picture. These companies, do a lot of research, develop a drug, get the approval of authorities concerned and sell it to us. This is a big industry and the current global business is around 1.2 Trillion US dollars. ie close to 7 lac crore rupees.
The Indian market is estimated to be 36 billion USD. Of late we hear that the pharma sector is not doing well and the share prices have come down anywhere around 50 to 70% from their two year highs. Let us understand, what is happening in the industry.

Though it is a big subject by itself, I shall try to make it simple to understand. I call it as the MAGIC

Before we see the MAGIC in detail, basically the pharma and chemical companies do manufacture any one or more of the following categories.

a. GENERICS. When a drug is invented, normally the company that invents applies for a patent and the period of patent is valid for about 7 years. Till that period, no other company, can copy or produce that drug. After the expiry of the patent period, it is open and other companies can manufacture same or similar drug. The drug then moves into Generic category. Generic drugs are those drugs after the expiry of the patent period.

b. API – Active pharmaceutical Ingredient. is the main drug itself, where the active portion of the drug is present. Almost every pharmaceutical company is having API manufacturing.

c. CRAMS – Contract Research and Manufacturing Services, is an outsourcing activity where the company engaged does the work for another company in research or manufacturing. This is similar, to Foxcon making electronic components for mobile phones and assembly

d. Biosimilars. A biosimilar (also known as follow-on biologic or subsequent entry biologic) is a biologic medical product which is almost an identical copy of an original product that is manufactured by a different company. Companies like Biocon, Dr Reddys are investing heavily into this activity.

Having understood the basics, the Pharma sector has the MAGIC issues.

M- Margins. Majority of the sale of products come from Generics and there is heavy competition and there are also price regulations by the governments. Indian companies, with majority of sales in the US is struggling against competition and Pricing.

A- Approvals Any new drug, needs to be approved by the regulator and the major agency doing this is FDA or US FDA. US food and drug administration. A company has to make ANDA ie application for new drug approval and after getting that only, they can sell the drugs.

G- Geography. The market in which the pharma company present is also important and determines the sales, regulations approvals and margins. Currently majority of the sales is from US and Europe and US is the major market for Indian Pharma companies.

I – Inspection. Normally approvals and Inspections are a combination. However, Inspection is an ongoing activity. The regulators, check the manufacturing companies for quality, process compliance and data integrity. These inspections are periodical and based on the report, they can even prevent the companies from manufacturing till the noted issue is resolved to the regulators satisfaction.

C – Currency. Since the business is from different markets, the currency rate, fluctuations and they in turn affect the net profit of the companies. Un hedged forex can swing the margins.

Currently anyone or all of the above ILLS are plaguing the pharma industry. So what is there for us an investors?

Having mentioned about the sector, it is an industry where there is high entry barrier for competition and new companies to enter the sector. The skills required are also of high order and difficult to acquire easily. The companies are there for long haul and there are no fly by night operators. The quality of the management is very important.

PiLLS available.

a. Many companies are working hard to adhere to the compliance and overcoming any deficiency observed.
b. The data integrity and systems are improving.
c. The managements are committed and we have seen that some of the companies, who were issued observations like DR Reddys, Wockhardt, Divis Labs are already have got clearances.
d. This is an industry which is for long haul and This is suitable for those investors, who can with stand oscillating pressures .

Do choose the company and stay invested. If you cant chose the company, go for a pharma fund through the mutual fund route
Do contact me for any clarifications.
pharma pills

Bungee jumping and Investment

I am sure all of you know about Bungee Jumping and am also sure that some of you must have tried it as well. It is an activity and you can feel the flow of adrenaline.Some people call it a sport. This is for a very short duration.
The bungee jump involves, jumping from a diving platform with the ankles of the diver, firmly tied and held to a spring. As you jump from the platform, you fall by gravity and as you reach the bottom most point, you are pulled back by the spring force and you go up. On reaching a higher level, usually below the platform, you fall again and go up. This process gets repeated and slowly you stay at the lower end, where you are guided to the nearest landing point with help
bunjee6

What are the forces at play while doing a bungee jump?

There are three main forces at play.

  1. The gravitational force, which pulls you down as you jump
  2. The force the spring provides which helps you from not falling and also enables you come up.
  3. The force or the resistance offered by air.

 

But for the air resistance, you can keep going up and down. But the air resistance, acts on the spring force and reduces your ascent back every time when finaly the fall and climb ends. The important thing is that when the gravitation force does positive. work the spring does negative work and when the spring does positive work gravitational force does negative work. All the time air resistance does negative work.This is akin to Your Portfolio appreciating or depreciating but inflation always does negative work and erodes the purchasing value. Your portfolio has to do super positive work to over come inflation and grow

click on the link, to read more about the force.This is classic conversion of potential energy to kinetic energy and back. But why we need to know this and what relevance it has got with investing?

Market

Market is a place where people buy and sell goods or services. In stock market, people buy and sell shares or other instruments. There is difference in perception of the buyer and seller and hence exists a price difference. Like three forces exists, In a market there exist a buyer, a seller, and volatility.

Appreciation, depreciation, and inflation.What you buy may appreciate or depreciate in value depending upon the market forces

Energy

There are basically two energies on display.

The potential energy, the height from which the jump takes place and the kinetic energy which is either due to the gravity or the spring force. However the level of energy gets reduced for every movement due to the air resistance

 

Markets see that  the stock prices or NAV of a fund, move up and down depending on the energies which is the momentum on selling side or purchasing side. And the air resistance is similar to inflation and does constantly erode growth in wealth.

See how some stocks have done bungee jump in the last one year and Who can do bungee jump?

Anybody can do a bungee jump.

In bungee jump, there is a trainer who guides you and helps you, take the jump and also land safely after you finish your jump.This is similar to an advisor, who guides you through the process of investing and enabling you to reach the goal or the destination. You get to experience the ups and downs and the resistance offered by air. You get to see the world with a different point of view.While staying the course of investing, in order to reach your goal, yet get to see all the risk, volatility, momentum and performance at play.

 

  • Your behavior is controlled and you are disciplined during the jump. If you can exhibit a similar discipline and behavior in investing, you are sure the winner.
  • Fortunately, you don’t get to hear any noise during the jump as you are isolated from the media. Avoid noise from the media while investing.
  • More importantly, you have to indulge in the activity to gain and like wise, you have to invest to create wealth.

When to Jump ?

You cannot take to bungee jump, whenever you feel doing it. It depends upon the weather, the time of the day, availbility of the trainer etc. Follow the 5W 2h process in all activities you do What, why, where, who, when. How and the new one you add is ” How Much”?

I am your trainer and do contact me for the experience of a bungee jump in investing. Schedule a free introductory call with me on tlk.to/varadha

Thanks

Varadharajan VS

ckar.vsv@gmail.com

 

Heads I win! Tails you lose!!

Hi

The subject says it all and that is what every investor expects.
Before that let us read a small story. This story is a little old when not much transportation was available.
A man set out on a long journey, say dream journey, to fulfill his goal and starred the journey with all preparations. The story should be read keeping in mind, that the travel is not modern day travel, but by walk. He was very happy and made quite a progress and stopped midway to rest.  His journey was also very smooth. He just turned back and looked at the path he traveled. To his surprise he saw two pairs of foot prints on the pathway. He was very surprised, as to,  who was the other person following him. He was worried and shouted as to who was following him.  A voice, answered him.  “It is me” , God  said and continued that he has been with him.  The man was very happy to know that God was with him and that he need not worry.
After the break, he set out again on his journey and this time, the journey was not very smooth. He faced lot of problems some being trivial to some being severe. He got tired of facing and overcoming the problems. He once again stopped to take rest. This time, he looked back to see the path, he traversed. This time he saw only, one pair of foot prints. He got shocked and thought God had left him and that is why he was undergoing all the problems, he had been facing. He shouted and asked “God. Where are you? ”  God answered him and said that he was very much with him.
The man then, asked, if that is so, why only one pair of footprint.  God replied, ” The foot prints you see are of mine”.  You were very tired and exhausted midway. I had to carry you on my shoulders and that is the reason why you see only one pair of foot print.”  The man realised and thanked God for being with him throughout.
Sometimes, while investing, many an investor, feel their portfolio, showing positive returns, as the market goes up and are very happy to see that growing every day. At that time, they think, it only due to the market and no effort of any body else is involved.
When the market comes down, they see their portfolio, come down or in the red, they think of the advisor and some even blame him for choosing bad stocks or funds.  They follow the headline statement.
Tails I win!  Heads you lose!!
But the investor advisor relationship has to be like the relationship as mentioned above and the advisor stays with the investor till the goals are realised. He handholds, the investor when needed, discourages emotional decision and encourages rational thinking. Have faith in your advisor, trust him.
In dynamics, the law of motion says
V = U + AT
the relations ship between the advisor and you as an investor is
We  = You  + Me too
All the advisor does, make your travel like travelling in the mumbai suburban train.  Either to board the train or alight from the train, you need to be in the right place at the right time. The crowd take you in or out of the train.  If you are at the wrong place, you will be thrown out of the train, in a destination, which was not your intended one.
Have a safe investing journey.
Do stay in touch.
Thanks
varadharajan VS
ckar.vsv@gmail.com

Kaju, Kismiss & the Dilemma

Hi

This is about a leading company, in India making innovative products and their latest innovation was a new machine.
It was called “The Rat killing Machine”.
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This is a very simple machine. The rat in search of the food comes to the position as shown in the picture.
It is drawn into the position by attracting with kaju (cashew)  at one end and Kismiss (Raisins) at the other end.
It turns its head, looks at Kaju and then Kismiss and when it does three or four times, its head moves against the blade and gets killed.
This company is a established firm and good sales team and launched the above market to be a pioneer and market leader. Initially the sales was very good and over the years, there were lot fo competitors who could produce this cheaper and the company was losing share.
The sales team wanted the company to make a low cost machine so that it can increase the sales based on the price.
The company did come out with a Rat Killing machine (Economy Version)
This machine is the same as the earlier version, except that there is no Kaju and No kismiss.
The rat comes to the same position as it is used and finds that there is no Kaju and No kismiss and like in the earlier case, after three or four times the rat gets killed.
Though this works on the principle that every one falls for a bait and given options, are in a dilemma and unable to choose one of the options.
We as investors are also perennially in a dilemma
Is it Kaju or Kismiss?
Is it a bull market or a bear market
Is it Kaju or Kismiss?
Should I buy or Sell?
Is it Kaju or Kismiss?
Should I buy Debt or Equity?
Is it Kaju or Kismiss?
Should I buy equity funds or Direct Equity?
If we keep pondering over the situation, we will always be in a dilemma and never invest.
Like the rat gets killed, the value of our money will get killed by inflation.
Dont try to time the market. Rather the time in the market.
We all know that
                              n
A = P ( 1+ r/100)
We constantly worry out r the rate of return than  n the no. of years.
A small “r” with a big “n”  will earn much more than a birg “r” and a small ‘n”
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Be different. Think differently.  You can create wealth.
Start your investments today. Do contact me.
Varadharajan VS
ckar.vsv@gmail.com