A review of stocks after 3 years


I had recommended a set of stocks in September 2014 and after three years just wanted to check where the portfolio.
1. The recommended list had 37 stocks and 1 stock now got added because of Grasim demerger as AB capital has been allotted.
2. If one would have allocated 10k per share uniformly. Since it is not possible to buy fractional shares, the nearest value has been taken. For example some shares would have been bought between, 9500 to 10 k while some would have been bought above 10k upto 11k.
3.Some shares have received extra shares, by way of bonus and splits and they have been considered accordingly.
4. Dividend declared after Sep 2014 till date has been considered.
5. It is also assumed that no share has been tendered under buy back, if any was offered.
6. It is also assumed, the current portfolio is the same without any churning.
1.  The total investment was Rs 3,69,440  and the current value is Rs. 6,15,215
2. The absolute return is 66.5%
3. Three stocks have grown over three times. They are Federal Bank, Berger Paints and Brittania
4. Four stocks have under performed and the return is negative. They are Sun Pharma, Idea cellular, Rallis India & Tata motors DVR.
5. 6 more stocks have grown between 200 to 300%
Though there are many stocks that have performed better than some of the stocks in the list, this is the chosen list based on my understanding.
Normally, one does not distribute the investment equally, but according to our liking we may have over allocation in one stock and under allocation in other. Performance would vary.
Though theoretically, it may be a good return, practically it poses many behavioral issues. Many people would have exited some of the stocks at some point I am not sure how many would have held on to stocks like hindalco when it reached as low as 59.
The selection of stocks was based on sector, the management an the market potential.
With conviction in chosen stocks, one can make decent return with a distributed portfolio.
If you have any query please do contact me.
The sheet is enclosed for your reference and use.

Thanks & regards



Investing in IPO


There are quite a few IPO which are now available for subscription in the next one week and they are

a. Eris Life scriences, which is open since 16th and closes on 20th

b. CDSL, which is a depository and subsidiary of BSE opens for subscription ON Monday and closes on 21st. 

c. GTPL Hathway  Limited is also open in the coming week from 21st to 23rd. 

In addition to the above, we have other IPO which are likely to hit the market like

ICICI Lombard

SBI life Insurance

HDFC Life insurance as the Max merger has not gone through

the details of PSU sale are given in the link for you to have a look. There will be  also offer for sale of shares in select companies. 


Should you Invest in IPO?

A Common question in every one’s mind is, Is it good to invest in IPO?

Is it the right time? 

As you all know, the markets are at an all time high with the sensex over 31 k and enough liquidity is there in the market and currently there is no sight of the market coming down drastically or correcting itself. One is thinking twice to invest in the current market. IPOs provide an opportunity for you to invest. 

How the IPOs which came earlier have fared?

 Look at the image below and see the performance of the various IPO which came about since April 16 and most of them have given decent returns. 

Inline images 1

How much you need to invest?

Most of the IPOs require anywhere between 14k to 15k per lot and you can investment more in multiples of the minimum lot size. 

Who should invest?

Both short term investors and Long term investors can consider investing. Short term investors can look to take listing gains. 

Where as long term investors can choose the IPO on fundamental strength and invest. 

What happens if the listing price is lower than the IPO price?

It is possible you need to hold and should have the ability to hold. Take IPO like ICICI pru life insurance from the listing price of 335 it went down to 261 and it has bounced back 70% from there and trading around 440

Same is the case with VArun beverages.


Do not borrow money and invest in IPO. You should invest only with your surplus money.  Otherwise, on a downturn, you can lose heavily and interest cost on the borrowed amount can be higher. 

In case you need any further details do contact me. 

Varadharajan vs


Don’t lose hope and more importantly don’t relax. Colgate Vs Crest –Nice read


I came across this articel and thought of sharing it with you.  Read on

Success is never permanent and there is always competition fighting to take your spot. So how does one battle a position that was lost? Looking at the toothpaste wars in the US can give us some lessons.The toothpaste brand “Crest”, owned by Procter & Gamble, was the favourite toothpaste for 40 years in the US since launching in 1955. However, in 1998, Colgate-Palmolive’s “Colgate Total” kicked out Crest from its champion spot.


Game changer delivers leadership position

How did a brand that was #1 for 40 years lose its spot in its market? Colgate-Palmolive had market leadership in more than 170 countries as the toothpaste champion but in the US, it was forced to contend with second place. The story changed in 1998 with the launch of Colgate Total and Crest tumbled from its leading spot. It took Crest almost a decade of fierce competition to regain the #1 position in the US in 2007 and the toothpaste battles continue. The way Crest won back its #1 position holds valuable lessons for us in the fund management and the financial distribution businesses.When Crest was first launched in 1955, Colgate was the market leader in the toothpaste category. In 1960, Crest became the first brand of toothpaste to receive an endorsement from the American Dental Association (ADA) that Crest was shown to be effective in fighting cavities. P&G took the market by storm with the endorsement and was able to dominate the US toothpaste marketover the next several decades with a product that was marketed as having both cosmetic and therapeutic benefits. Till the 1990s, Crest retained its leadership spot in the US market with around a 35% market share, while Colgate had about 20 percent.


Resting on past laurels

Over the years, P&G did not vary the sales pitch or the look of the brand. However, competition did not stay still. Rival toothpaste makers started to concentrate on other aspects of oral care beyond cavities to appeal to consumers – yellowing teeth, sensitive gums and bad breath. Crest meanwhile continued as the cavities fighter toothpaste but its fall was a slow decline. Between 1987 and 1997, Crest’s market share slipped from 39% to 25%.

In 1997, Colgate-Palmolive launched Colgate Total which promised to fight everything – cavities, tartar, plaque, bad breath, and, most importantly, gingivitis. An estimated 100 million Americans suffer from gum disease. Gingivitis is an inflammation of the gums which is usually caused by bacterial infection and can result in symptoms such as bleeding gums. If left untreated, it can lead to more a serious infection known as periodontitis. Gingivitis and periodontitis are major causes of tooth loss in adults. According to dentists, gingivitis can be prevented by consistent and proper oral hygiene.


Colgate Total capitalized on this consumer concern and Colgate Total was marketed as the only toothpaste approved by the Food and Drug Administration to prevent gingivitis, as well as by the American Dental Association to fight plaque and gingivitis. By the end of 1998, Colgate had grabbed 30% of the toothpaste market knocking P&G off its leadership spot in the US.

How did P&G get left behind? Even though P&G had all the technology that competition had exploited for years, the company continued its old approach and focus on what it used to do. The company was not quick to recognize the change in consumer trends and respond accordingly. P&G had a gingivitis fighting toothpaste in testing for at least 6 years but its slow and meticulous culture meant Colgate, with a much smaller research budget, was able to reach the market first.

Flip the game back – and win

Until P&G came up with its cavity fighter, toothpastes were largely marketed around their cosmetic value. For the next 40 years, Crest and Colgate slugged it out on therapeutic values – cavity fighting, gingivitis fighting, bad breath control, toothpastes for sensitive teeth and so on. This was a game that Colgate was playing better than Crest.

What P&G did next was not to find yet another therapeutic utility – but to flip the game back to where it originally started – cosmetic value. And, it thought beyond toothpastes to fight and win in the oral care market.

In 2000, the company introduced a 14-day tooth-whitening system, Crest Whitestrips. Compared to products used in dentists’ offices, the whitestrips allowed consumers to whiten teeth faster in the comfort of their own home at less cost. P&G was able to capitalize on the Crest brand name to ease any customer uneasiness about using the product at home without a dentist’s supervision. While the initial price of $40 was high for a P&G product, people were willing to buy the product as they trusted the Crest brand name.


Since approval from dentists formed the core of the Crest brand, P&G also had to win over dentists with Whitestrips. The company used its research to demonstrate the products safety and efficacy as well as developing a more powerful whitening product for dental-office use.

Whitestrips in its first year generated $200 million in revenue. It then introduced a complementary product – Night Effects and line extensions like Crest Whitening Liquid Gel and finally Crest MultiCare Whitening Toothpaste. If you wanted whiter teeth (as most consumers aspire for), Crest rolled out an impressive array of solutions in different formats, at different price points – to ensure that you went only to Crest and nowhere else. Over the years, P&G have expanded the Crest brand to include other products that combine oral care and aesthetics such as power toothbrushes, dental floss and mouthwash. By 2007, Crest was able to win back the #1 position in the US toothpaste market from Colgate.

Lessons for us

1. One cannot be complacent when your portfolio is performing well.

2.  Understand the stocks, that may be under threat and face competition.

The example currently is of FMCG brands, Vs  Patanjali Brand.  The impact of this not known yet. Be watchful

3. Good management will overcome turbulent times. Hence one of the criteria in stock selection would be the capability of management. With ability and governance

4. You can equate with the FDA issues the pharma companies . Well managed companies will improve their process quality and controls and adhere to compliance and scale up their business.

This post is  to remind us all that there is nothing permanent but never lose hope and more importanltly never relax

varadharajan VS


DIP! DIP!! DIP!!! – Dip & Stick to it.


Couple of decades back, when DIP tea bags were marketed, I am sure many would recall the jingle

” Dip dip dip. Dip it a little longer, If you want it stronger, dip dip dip ”

Now read below to see how dips can be used effectively.

We all have heard the saying that ” Cash is King”. If you have cash,you can always get the best deal. The deal will be the best, if you can bargain and get the best price or If you can pick up at the best price that is thrown up.

This is very much possible especially when you want to buy the share of a company, which you wanted to be a part of your portfolio.

Stock market is not the perfect place and that is why you see variations in the price every second and every day. If the stock is fairly priced, there wont be any trade. Because the price is not fairly priced, you end up buying either at a low price to its fair value or pay a higher price to its fair value. But it is difficult to determine the fair value.

Because of the variations, the market offers opportunities and sometimes the stock is available at price below its fair value. If you really want to make good money, you need to wait for it.

Especially in the last one year, we had enough such opportunities. Some big events which gave these opportunities were

a. The market crash on 24th August 2o15 on china market crash and global sell off.

b. The day union budget for India was presented on 29th February, 2016,

c. There were some other opportunities which were not generic ( as it is called systemic) but specific to a particular sector or company which is termed as unsystemic. Example Sun Pharma on USFDA inspection dropped in July /August. Likewise Lupin also dropped to 1324

However no one knows these events before it happens. There fore one should

  1. always keep some cash, in their portfolio to utilise such opportunities to buy the stocks you want. It is suggested and my opinion is that 20% of your portfolio should always be in cash.
  2. Watch for the stock you want to buy and pick it up at the price you think it is fair.

I have checked up the performances of the stock which are highly liquid and in the Nifty 50  in the last one year.

a. The high point of the stock in the last one year.

b. The low point of the stock during the year.

c. The price as on 11th May 2016 and the returns one would have got if he had bought the stocks the lowest price.

If one is averse to playing the stocks, you could have invested in the mutual funds route also and there could have been opportunities to make decent returns.

The table below gives you the low, high and the latest prices of some of the stocks and mutual funds and the return one could have made in the short term

Of course, there is a 15% short term capital gain and in case of mutual funds, there is an exit load which may be applicable. IN spite of this for a person, who buys his time to pick stock, Money comes knocking.

It is important to keep

Keep Cash. Wait for that Dip. & Buy the stock or fund you want. Deposit the money in your kitty.

ABCD – A Buy on Cash on DIPS

DCBA –  Deposit Cash in Bank Account.

You don’t need great knowledge but cash in hand &  patience. to make money


For any clarification or help, please feel free to contact me.





SIP in stocks – Apollo hospitals an example – in continuation to my earlier post


I am sure you must have gone through my post –  titled
Coke, Pizzas, Pollution & stress make Hospitals an Investment option – If you have not, please read it before you scroll down.
In that I had suggested to consider investing in Apollo hospitals and also suggested a SIP route. I enclose with this a small illustration, how one would have accumulated reasonable quantity. of shares of Apollo hospitals.
If one had bought 5 share of Apollo Hospitals on the 1st of every month from 1st March 2011 till 1st February, 2016 one could have accumulated 300 shares by now.
The cost of purchase of these shares is Rs 2 71 530 and this does not include transaction charges like brogerage etc.
The value of these shares as on 1st March was 4,49,100 when the share price was 1497.
This  company has been paying dividends every year and one would have got Rs 5791 as dividend in proportion to the shares held at the time of dividend payout.
The total gain in this proces is 67%.
Inline images 1
Just like a mutual fund, you can buy shares regularly and accumulate.
Apollo is in health care sector and we all know that this business will only keep increasing as people want to live longer.
As people will to live longer, you stay invested for a longer period and become wealthier.
The excel sheet working is encloed.
To get started with buying a share, you must have a demat account and I can help you open one  & get that started. Do contact me.

Coke, Pizzas, Pollution & stress make Hospitals an Investment option


Greetings on the new financial year. On this new financial year starting, we can look at a new sector which is normally overlooked.
Hospitals in India.
The spending of government on health care is not raising higher and is way below the developed countries. In developed countries, the allocation is around 10% of GDP and in India this year it is just 1.3% which is less than 40 k crores.
Some of the factors which will see growth in revenues in Health care are:
a. The medical tourism in India is likely to touch $8 billion or around 5500 crores by 2020
b. The life span of the individuals in increased and has gone up by 8 years in the last 35 years from 65 to 73 years.
this can be considered as boon or a Bane. A bane for people who are sick and need to spend more on health care.
c. There are lot of lifestyle diseases which are now affecting the youngsters including depression
d. Addiction to drugs, tobacco, alcohol are only adding to the problems.
e. There is so much of pollution around us, in water, air, food we eat which does affect our body.
f. New viruses which keep surprising everyone like Zika, Ebola etc
g. You also have the medical inflation around 12% for the last 5 years, This means you treatment cost will go up 10 times in the next 20 years.
95% of the people die due to some illness and undergo treatment.
Therefore, there is strong case for the revenue of the hospitals to grow.
DO we know how much it costs to build a hospital?
The current estimated  cost to build a hospital is 40 to 50 lacs per bed.  This means it requires 100 crores to build a hospital of 200 beds. If we calculate the interest the pay back period will be more than 10 years, depending upon, how much the hospitals charge. 
This is big entry barrier for setting up  a hospital. Though there are small hospitals who cater like kirana stores, we must focus on big hospitals as investors. 
Now which are the hospitals which are listed in India 
Inline images 1
Of this we see nationally there are four with good market cap and of the four two are recent issues.
You can consider Apollo Hospitals and Fortis. But understand the performance, Management of these stocks before investing.
This is new sector with a high growth prospectus and will be everlasting.
Also read the survey on Best HOspitals.
See the out performance of Apollo hosptials vs Fortis.
Please note the first two hospitals AIIMS and CMC vellore are not listed.
Inline images 2
I will be glad to help build your portfolio.
Watch out for this space where you will see how a SIP in Apollo in the 5 years would have made a difference to your portfolio

Thanks & regards


Pollution –Control –Regulations –Opportunities- Stocks to watch


This mail is a little longer. Have the patience to read. Or jump to opportunities.

I thought of touching this topic of Pollution which made heal lines for almost a fortnight in the last week of 2015 & first week of 2016.
I refer to the NGT ( national green tribunal) order banning registration of diesel vehicles over 2litres capacity.
This was also followed up with the trial of Odd Even scheme in a measure to control pollution.
The air pollution is a serious issue and it is affecting the lives of all citizens leading to various diseases including cancer, silicosis etc.
Click on this to read more on air pollution.
The regulator and the government and juidiciary are taking efforts and actions to improve the quality of air we breathe. Some ot the actions planned.
a. To take off the road, vehicles which are more than 15 years old.
b. Stop registering  higher capacity vehicles especially in Diesel, which are one of the causes for pollution.
c. Government, both the state and central governments, to take off the road, vehicles which are more than 5 years old.
d. Speed up the advanced Euro 4 verison of the fuel, which is emanate less poisonous or hazardous gases from the exhaust.
e. REduce the Carbon black content in tyres which cause pollution.
Given below are the approximate figures of vehicles which will  be afftected
Inline images 1
1. Implement ODD EVEN schemes which will forcibly reduce the vehicles on road daily.
2. Remove older vehicles.
3. Incentives for manufacturers, refiners, users to know and adhere on the regulations.
4. Provide alternate fuels in good supply to avoid shortage.
Other causes for Pollution
a.  Power plants which use Coal extensively
b. Refrigerants especially in refrigerators and air conditioners.
c. Disposal of waste by burning tyre and plastics.
d, Carbon black in Tyres.
If these were to be implemented there will great opportunities that will be Available to investors.  I list below few of them.
1. With the ban of old vehicles there will be replacement of cars taking place and hence the sale of new cars would increase.
Companies that would benefit would be Maruti , Honda, Hyundai . Mahindra  only Maruti and Mahindra are listed.
2. With the ban of heavy vehicles like buses and trucks, the sale of heavy vehicles will increase.
Tata motors, Ashok leyland & Eichers.
 All three are listed. However companies like Eicher Volvo. Mercedes could be new entrants.
3. With the commercial vehicle sales improving, ancillary sales will also pick up.
4. However Tyre companies will face challenge from import of tyres from China
5. This will also encourage CNG buses and vehicles and hence GAs distribution companies like Indraprastha GAs, Gujarat Gas and GSPL will stand to benefit.
6. Vehicles run on alternate fuels like battery solar are very nascent and we need to keep watch on this area of development.
7. This may also lead to aggregators growing there business and if listed, can be an opportunity.  Like Uber /ola etc.
Stocks to focus on buying
a. Maruti
b. Ashok Leyland
c. Tata Motors
d. Wabco
e. Bosch
f. Ramakrishna forgings
g. Mayur Uniquoters
Gujarat GAs
Indraprastha GAs
There will be many more beneficiaries
If interested to know more, please do contact me
varadharajan vs